Track the latest public opinion data from across Canada with detailed analysis and historical trends.
The Nanos tracking poll ending April 12, 2025 shows the Liberals at 44.3% and Conservatives at 38.6%, indicating a widening gap of 5.7 percentage points between the two leading parties.
A striking 83% of Canadians are now supporting either the Liberals (44%) or Conservatives (39%), compared to only 67% in the 2021 election, with smaller parties seeing significant declines in support (NDP down from 16% to 9%, PPC from 5% to 1%).
The Nanos tracking poll shows the Liberals at 43% and Conservatives at 38%, indicating a narrower 5-point gap compared to the Ipsos poll, with the Liberal lead shrinking as the Conservatives gained 3 points while the Liberals lost 3 points in recent days.
The poll reveals distinct regional patterns with the Liberals leading in four of five regions (Atlantic: 50.1%, Quebec: 41.9%, Ontario: 47.7%, BC: 41.7%), while the Conservatives dominate the Prairies (59.4%) and remain competitive in Ontario (41.2%).
The Leger poll shows Mark Carney's Liberal Party maintaining a solid lead with 44% support among decided voters, compared to 37% for Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party, with these numbers remaining stable compared to previous weeks.
52% of Canadians believe the Liberal Party will win the next election (a 6-point increase from previous polling), compared to 27% who think the Conservatives will win (a 4-point decrease), indicating growing public perception of a Liberal victory.
The Liberal Party led by Mark Carney has opened a significant double-digit lead with 46% support (+2 points from previous week), putting them in majority government territory, while Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have fallen to 34% (-4 points).
Mark Carney is viewed as the best candidate for Prime Minister by 45% of Canadians (+1 point), compared to 32% for Pierre Poilievre (-1 point) and 12% for Jagmeet Singh (+4 points).
The Liberal Party (LPC) is in the lead with 45.9% of decided voters' support, significantly ahead of the Conservative Party (CPC) at 34.9%.
The ballot advantage for the Liberals has increased from 5 to 11 percentage points since the beginning of the nightly tracking, the Conservatives and Liberals are within the margin of error of each other among male voters for the first time in the Nanos tracking since June 2022. Liberals have a comfortable 23 point lead over the Conservatives among women voters.
The Liberals (LPC) are in the lead with 45.5% support, a 10-point lead over the Conservatives.
Carney seems to be increasing Liberal fortunes
As the second week of the election campaign begins, Mark Carney's Liberal Party continues to lead in voting intentions, with 44% of Canadians saying they would vote for the Liberal Party if the election were held today.
Two-thirds of Canadians (64%) say their vote is final, while one-third (33%) remain open to changing their mind.
As the 2025 federal election campaign begins, the Liberal party, led by Mark Carney, maintains a national lead with 44% of voter support (+2 pts from earlier this month) over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, who have 38% (+2 pts).
Canadians are split on the Carney Liberal government's performance, with 46% saying they've done a good job and deserve re-election (+4 pts from March 18, 2025), while 50% believe it's time for another federal party to take over (-8 pts from March 18, 2025).
Focus on US President Trump continues to intensify as the top unprompted national issue of concern.
Conservatives and Liberals remain gripped in a close race.
Mark Carney and the Liberal Party of Canada are leading in voting intentions with 44% of Canadians saying they would vote for the Liberal Party if an election were held today. This is compared to 38% for Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party.
Mark Carney (39%) is considered the party leader who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, ahead of Pierre Poilievre (28%).
Mark Carney is the top choice for the federal candidate who would make the best Prime Minister at 42%42%, leading Pierre Poilievre 32%32% by ten percentage points.
42% say the Liberal government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 58% think it's time for another federal party to take over.
If a federal election were held today, 42% of Canadians would vote for the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney, while 39% would vote for the Conservative Party. This represents a 5-point increase for the Liberals since the last survey and puts them ahead of the Conservatives.
Nearly half of Canadians (46%) hold a favorable view of Mark Carney, while 28% have an unfavorable opinion.
If a federal election were held today, 37% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 37% would vote for the Liberal Party. The Conservatives have decreased by six points since last week (43%), while the Liberals have increased by seven points (30%).
Half of Canadians want a change of government for the next federal election (53%), while 29% want the current team to continue.
If a federal election were held today, 43% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 30% would vote for the Liberal Party.
The Conservatives have increased by five points compared to last week (38%), while the Liberal Party has decreased by five points (35%).
Concern about Trump continues to rise.
Trump and jobs statistically tied as the top issue of concern.
For the first time since 2021, the Liberal Party of Canada has taken a two-point lead among decided voters. They are at 38% while the Conservatives have fallen to 36%.
The renewed Liberals are drawing support from Conservatives ā5, NDP ā4, and Bloc ā3.
If a federal election were held today, 38% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, up to a 3 points, while 35% would vote for the Liberal Party, up 2 points.
With Mark Carney as leader, Liberal support would rise to 40% (+5), while Conservative support would be at 38%. This change would allow them to surpass the Conservatives.
If a federal election were held today, 41% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada.
33% of those surveyed indicated that they would vote for the Liberal Party.
Overall, Canadians (82%) are concerned that Donald Trump could use tariffs or trade sanctions to pressure Canada into a closer union with the U.S.
Among potential successors to Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney continues to emerge as the clear frontrunner, now garnering 37% support. Chrystia Freeland follows at 12%, while Karina Gould trails at 3%.
Despite shifts in the political landscape, the Conservatives remain well-positioned for a decisive victory if an election were held tomorrow.
Liberal Party support has increased, reaching 28%, an 8-point gain since early January. This increase has partially come at the expense of the Conservative Party.
If a federal election were held today, 43% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 25% would vote for the Liberal Party.
The Liberal Party saw an increase of 4 percentage points while the Conservatives experienced a decrease of 4 points since last measurement.
The Conservatives hold a significant lead in ballot tracking at 45%, compared to the Liberals at 21% and the NDP at 19%. This suggests a considerable shift in voter preference.
The Liberal brand, as measured by the Nanos Party Power Index, is near a decade low.
Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party is currently leading by 26 points with 47% of Canadians saying they would vote conservative in a Federal election as opposed to just 21% of Canadians that would vote Liberal.
Among the potential successors to Justin Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland remains in the lead with 14% support closely followed by Mark Carney (13%). However, Mark Carney is the favorite among Liberal voters, with 27% support.
Trudeau's resignation hasn't changed the Liberal Party's prospects; support has remained flat.
Conservatives are still on track to win a decisive victory, leading by 26 points against the Liberals.
Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party is currently leading by 23 points ahead of Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party
A significant 72% of Canadians express dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau's government.